LME Copper Pulls Back After Hitting $10,000 Mark [Institutional Commentary]

Published: Mar 21, 2025 09:01

Save

(1) US existing home sales in February annualized to 4.26 million units, above the expected 3.95 million and the January figure of 4.08 million. Existing home sales rose 4.2% MoM, beating the forecast of a 3.2% decline and the January decrease of 4.9% MoM.

(2) According to Xinhua News Agency, the US President publicly urged the US Fed to cut interest rates, acknowledging that tariffs would impact the US economy and calling for the Fed to "do the right thing."

(3) As of Thursday, March 20, SMM copper inventories fell by 2,600 mt to 346,400 mt from Monday, and dropped 9,100 mt from the previous Thursday, marking three consecutive weeks of destocking. Inventories have pulled back 30,600 mt from the peak this year and are 48,600 mt lower YoY.

(4) New York copper futures hit a record high. Amid tariff threats, US importers stockpiled copper, pushing the premium of Comex copper futures over LME copper to over $1,200/mt, nearing the record high set in mid-February.

(5) On March 20, #1 copper cathode in east China was on parity, down 20 WoW; spot prices in south China were at a premium of 185, up 55 WoW; and spot prices in north China were at a discount of 170, down 40 WoW.

(6) LME copper fell 0.88% to $9,910/mt.

(7) Under the expectation of tariffs, the price spread between New York and LME copper reached a new high, accelerating the flow of non-US copper cathode into the US. The decline in treatment and refining charges (TC) for copper concentrates widened, with supply remaining tight. There were rumors of unplanned production cuts by smelters, as the peak maintenance period is expected in March-April. Social inventories saw three consecutive weeks of destocking. After copper prices rose, downstream consumption appeared slightly weak, while suppliers stood firm on quotes.

(8) Strategy recommendation: After LME copper tested the $10,000 level and pulled back, SHFE copper followed the correction. Short-term defensive positions for longs can be considered based on risk preference, either at the MA5 or MA20.

(Source: Zhongzhou Futures)

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

22 hours ago

"Premier Li Qiang Leads State Council Meeting on Enhancing Effective Investment, Boosting Economic Growth"

Premier Li Qiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council to study policy measures for promoting effective investment. The meeting noted that promoting effective investment plays an important role in stabilizing economic growth and strengthening momentum for development. It is necessary to innovate and improve policy measures, and intensify efforts to enhance the efficiency of utilizing funds such as central budget investments, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds, and new-type policy-based financial instruments. In conjunction with formulating and implementing the 15th Five-Year Plan

22 hours ago

"Guided by Xi Jinping Thought, Implement 20th CPC Congress Spirit, Apply New Development Philosophy...

Guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, we will thoroughly implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the plenary sessions of the Party’s 20th Central Committee, fully and faithfully apply the new development philosophy, strengthen top-level design, build computing power interconnection nodes oriented toward national hub periods, major strategic regions, and key industries, establish a system of computing power interconnection nodes, improve the efficiency and service level of public computing power resources, and promote high-quality development of computing power.

22 hours ago

Indirect Iran-US Nuclear Talks in Muscat Show Progress, Omani FM Mediates Tense but Efficient Discussions

After intensive indirect consultations, the new round of nuclear talks between Iran and the US in Muscat, the capital of Oman, has achieved phased progress. It is reported that during this round of talks, the Iranian and US delegations did not meet directly. Instead, Omani Foreign Minister Badr acted as an intermediary, conveying a series of core proposals, strategic concerns, and policy positions to the other side. The atmosphere at the talks was tense yet efficient. According to preliminary on-site assessments, although both sides continue to negotiate over specific terms, they have reached a consensus on the key objective of "continuing dialogue."

22 hours ago